Cross-topic view

Indicators by Type

The same indicators, re-sorted by when they move relative to the business cycle. Leading indicators warn, coincident indicators confirm the present, and lagging indicators verify the turn after the fact.

LeadingTurns before the cycle, an early warning.

CoincidentMoves with the cycle, the current read.

LaggingConfirms after the cycle has turned.

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Cross-topic classification of every indicator in this vault by economic timing, i.e. whether it turns before, with, or after the broader business cycle. Use this view when you care about when a signal arrives, not which topic it belongs to.

What These Categories Mean#

Type	Definition	Use For
Leading	Turns before the broader economy turns	Forecasting and early warning of cycle changes
Coincident	Moves with the economy in real time	Confirming the current state of the cycle
Lagging	Turns after the economy has already turned	Validating that a trend is real and persistent

Type Map#

Leading Indicators#

Turn first; used to forecast where the cycle is heading.

Indicator	Topic	Link	Frequency	Provider	What It Tells Us
Initial Jobless Claims	Labour Market	Open note	Weekly	DoL ETA / State UI	Fresh layoffs — the fastest labour signal
JOLTS — Openings & Quits	Labour Market	Open note	Monthly	BLS	Job demand and worker confidence before hires happen
ISM Manufacturing PMI	Business Activity	Open note	Monthly	ISM	Manufacturing direction, especially via New Orders sub-index
ISM Services PMI	Business Activity	Open note	Monthly	ISM	Services activity composite (~88% of GDP)
S&P Global Manufacturing PMI	Business Activity	Open note	Monthly (Flash mid-month)	S&P Global	Earliest read on manufacturing — 2-week head start over ISM
S&P Global Services PMI	Business Activity	Open note	Monthly (Flash mid-month)	S&P Global	Services activity question — also has coincident traits
Michigan Consumer Sentiment	Consumer Activity	Open note	Monthly	Univ. of Michigan	Consumer optimism — leads spending by 1–3 months
Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations	Consumer Activity	Open note	Monthly	Univ. of Michigan	Near-term inflation psychology — wage-price spiral signal
Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations	Consumer Activity	Open note	Monthly	Univ. of Michigan	Long-run anchoring — Fed's most-watched sentiment series

Coincident Indicators#

Move with the economy; used to confirm the present state of the cycle.

Indicator	Topic	Link	Frequency	Provider	What It Tells Us
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP)	Labour Market	Open note	Monthly	BLS — CES	Current job creation in the nonfarm economy
Labor Force Participation Rate (LFPR)	Labour Market	Open note	Monthly	BLS — CPS	Share of population working or looking for work
JOLTS — Hires & Separations	Labour Market	Open note	Monthly	BLS	Actual labour turnover happening right now
Retail Sales	Consumer Activity	Open note	Monthly	Census Bureau	Goods spending — fastest hard data on consumer demand
Retail Sales ex Auto	Consumer Activity	Open note	Monthly	Census Bureau	Retail Sales with volatile auto category removed
Personal Spending	Consumer Activity	Open note	Monthly	BEA	All consumer spending incl. services (~70% of GDP)
Personal Income	Consumer Activity	Open note	Monthly	BEA	Income base that funds future spending
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)	Growth (GDP)	Open note	Quarterly	BEA — NIPAs	Total economic output — the scorecard

[!note] S&P Global Services PMI also has coincident properties: it reads current business activity in addition to leading it. It is classified above under Leading for its Flash release timing.

Lagging Indicators#

Turn after the economy turns; used to confirm trends are persistent.

Indicator	Topic	Link	Frequency	Provider	What It Tells Us
Unemployment Rate	Labour Market	Open note	Monthly	BLS — CPS	Share of labour force unemployed — confirms weakness after onset
Continuing Jobless Claims	Labour Market	Open note	Weekly	DoL ETA / State UI	People still receiving benefits — job-finding difficulty
Average Hourly Earnings (AHE)	Labour Market	Open note	Monthly	BLS — CES	Wage growth — feeds into consumer prices with a lag
Employment Cost Index (ECI)	Labour Market	Open note	Quarterly	BLS — NCS	Broader compensation incl. benefits — Fed's preferred wage gauge
Consumer Price Index (CPI)	Inflation	Open note	Monthly	BLS	Out-of-pocket urban consumer price changes
Core CPI	Inflation	Open note	Monthly	BLS	CPI ex-food and ex-energy — "sticky" inflation
Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE)	Inflation	Open note	Monthly	BEA	Broader price measure incl. third-party spending
Core PCE	Inflation	Open note	Monthly	BEA	Fed's officially preferred inflation gauge (2% target)

[!note] See Why Inflation Indicators Are Lagging for the structural reasons all four inflation measures land in this category.

How To Read#

Read indicators in the natural cycle order, leading first and lagging last:

Leading. Are storm clouds gathering? Watch PMIs, Michigan Sentiment, Initial Jobless Claims, JOLTS Openings.
Coincident. Where is the economy right now? Watch NFP, Retail Sales, Personal Spending, GDP.
Lagging. Has the trend been confirmed? Watch Unemployment Rate, Continuing Claims, Core PCE, Core CPI.

A turn in leading indicators that is not yet visible in coincident data is the most actionable macro signal. A turn confirmed in lagging data is the slowest but most reliable.

Notes On Dual Classifications#

A small number of indicators do not sit cleanly in one category:

Indicator	Primary Category	Secondary Category	Reason
JOLTS	Leading (Openings & Quits)	Coincident (Hires & Separations)	JOLTS bundles four series with different cycle timing
S&P Global Services PMI	Leading	Coincident	The single business activity question reads current conditions while still arriving ahead of hard data
Employment Cost Index (ECI)	Lagging	—	Also classified as wage-pressure indicator alongside Average Hourly Earnings (AHE)

U.S. Macro Cheatsheet — central hub organised by topic
Topic appendices: Labour Market · Inflation · Business Activity · Consumer Activity · Growth (GDP)