Position Sizing Framework
How position sizes are likely set. The exact weights are not public; this reconstructs the manager's sizing logic from the holdings shape + the stated philosophy. Companion to Portfolio Construction Overview.
The Sizing Equation (conceptual)#
conviction × asymmetry (bull/bear skew) × liquidity
weight ≈ ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
correlation-to-existing-book
- Conviction ↑ size, depth + durability of moat + thesis certainty.
- Asymmetry ↑ size, favourable bull-vs-bear payoff.
- Liquidity ↑ size, ability to enter/exit (mega-caps sized larger; smaller/ADR/HK names capped).
- Correlation ↓ size, a name highly correlated to what's already owned earns less incremental weight (the spine shares a risk budget).
The Risk-Budget Rule (the key discipline)#
Because ~18 names share the AI-capex factor (Overlap & Diversification Map), the fund treats the AI infrastructure spine as a single risk position composed of correlated parts. It doesn't size NVIDIA, TSMC, Micron, Marvell, + Disco as five independent bets, it sizes them as one "silicon-scarcity" allocation split across the chokepoints. This prevents the book from being secretly 80% one trade at full size.
Inferred Weight Tiers#
| Tier | Approx role | Holdings | |, -|, -|, -| | Tier 1, Largest | Highest-conviction AI chokepoints + mega-cap anchors | Micron Technology · NVIDIA · TSMC · Alphabet · Microsoft · Amazon | | Tier 2, Large | Spine + top software + power | Meta Platforms · Marvell Technology · Datadog · CrowdStrike · ServiceNow | | Tier 3, Mid | Software estate + power + thematic | Zscaler · Snowflake · Salesforce · Constellation Energy · Vistra · Netflix · Disco Corporation | | Tier 4, Smaller | Diversifiers + higher-variance satellites | BioNTech · Roblox · Adyen · Tencent · MercadoLibre · Li Ning · PayPal · BYD · IQVIA |
(Tiering inferred from the stated holdings order, Micron → NVIDIA → TSMC → Alphabet → Datadog → … → BYD, which broadly tracks descending weight. Re-verify against actual fund data.)
Adding + Trimming Discipline#
Per Fund Philosophy & Process:
- Cyclical names (Micron Technology, TSMC, Disco Corporation, the power names), add into capitulation, trim into euphoria. Size for the cycle's amplitude.
- Secular compounders (Microsoft, ServiceNow, Adyen), let winners run; trim only on thesis impairment or extreme valuation.
- Optionality names (BioNTech, Roblox), size small enough that a zero doesn't impair the fund, large enough that a multi-bagger matters.
Liquidity + Access Constraints#
- Mega-caps (NVIDIA, MSFT, AMZN, GOOGL, META), most liquid; can carry the largest weights.
- ADR / foreign listings (TSMC TSM, Tencent 0700.HK, BYD 1211.HK, Li Ning 2331.HK, Disco Corporation 6146.T, Adyen ADYEN.AS, BioNTech BNTX), sized with liquidity + custody + (for China/HK) geopolitical-access considerations.
Single-Name + Single-Risk Caps (inferred discipline)#
- No single name dominates such that its failure breaks the fund.
- The TSMC/Taiwan tail (Taiwan Strait Risk) is explicitly capped + monitored, the one risk the fund can't internally hedge.
- The China cluster (Tencent/BYD/Li Ning) is sized as a combined policy-risk budget.
Linked Notes#
- Portfolio Construction Overview · Core vs Satellite Holdings · Return Drivers vs Hedges · Overlap & Diversification Map
- Fund Philosophy & Process · Risk Master Note · Taiwan Strait Risk · Holdings Master Table · Knowledge Graph